Dynamic Behavior and Unstable State

Dynamic Behavior and Unstable State Evolution of Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator

It is mathematically and thoroughly proved in this paper that the nonlinear stochastic ocean-atmosphere oscillator model possesses a stable limit cycle; then the model equations are transformed into the FokkerPlanck equation (FPE), and the evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from unstable state to stable state is studied from the point of view of nonequilibrium system dynamics. The study results reveal that although the complex nonlinear ocean-atmosphere oscillator model possesses multiequilibrium states,the real climatic system possesses only a quasi-normal state and a strong ENSO cycle stable state. The first passage time between states is also given in this paper, and the theoretical computational results agree with observational data.

作 者： DONG Wenjie FENG Guolin   作者單位： DONG Wenjie(Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)

FENG Guolin(Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029) 

刊 名： 氣象學報（英文版）  SCI 英文刊名： ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA  年，卷(期)： 2005 19(4)  分類號： P4  關鍵詞： ENSO   Fokker-Planck equation   limit cycle   ocean-atmosphere oscillator   probability density  

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